# Belief Registry

## Claims

### agm-belief-revision [IN] OBSERVATION
AGM (Alchourrón, Gärdenfors, Makinson 1985) provides formal theory for rational belief revision. Entrenchment scoring in backtracking is a crude approximation of AGM

### atms-de-kleer-1986 [IN] OBSERVATION
de Kleer (1986) ATMS uses assumption-based environments and nogoods. TMS beats ATMS for EEM because revision matters more than multiple environments when the problem solver (LLM) produces 13-37% errors

### beliefs-cli-vs-reasons-cli [IN] OBSERVATION
Two CLIs at different levels: beliefs CLI is a structured markdown KB with provenance and manual maintenance (simple, flat). reasons CLI (ftl-reasons) is a full TMS with automatic propagation, cascades, backtracking, and LLM-driven operations (powerful, dependency-aware). Use beliefs for independent facts, reasons for justified conclusions with dependency chains

### challenge-defend [IN] OBSERVATION
Dialectical argumentation: challenging a node makes it go OUT. Defending neutralizes the challenge. Multi-level chains supported — challenge the defense, defend the defense, etc. Preserves the original argument unlike retract

### cognitive-budget [IN] OBSERVATION
Cognitive budget principle borrowed from graphics frame budgets: decompose work into focused passes (TMS pass, RAG pass, merge pass) each within the model's attention budget. Mixing beliefs and document chunks in a single prompt degrades performance (Opus drops 95.5% to 86%); three focused passes achieve 100%

### confidence-unreliable [IN] OBSERVATION
LLM self-assessed confidence does not track accuracy. Confirmed across 4 models: Sonnet r=0.198, Opus r=-0.182 (worse than random), Flash r=0.219, Pro r=0.121. Answer and confidence come from the same process — same structural flaw as human overconfidence (Kahneman)

### construction-vs-retrieval [IN] OBSERVATION
Construction cost dominates: O(chunks) + O(beliefs x rounds). But it amortizes across all queries O(queries). Expensive to build, cheap to query at scale

### continuity-human-problem [IN] OBSERVATION
The human cannot track what the LLM currently has in context. EEM solves this via visibility and persistence — the human can always inspect the current belief state. Short compaction cycles are better than large context windows

### derive-then-review [IN] OBSERVATION
Over-derive, then review catches errors, retraction cascades propagate corrections. Both roles overshoot (derive over-generates, review over-retracts). Working through candidate retractions is where insights hide

### dual-path-architecture [IN] OBSERVATION
Dual-path retrieval: TMS path (pre-computed beliefs) + FTS path (source chunk search), merged by a third pass. This is how EEM is queried at scale. Each path stays within cognitive budget

### eem-compensates-model-size [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM compensates for model size — smaller models with EEM match larger models without it

### eem-definition [IN] OBSERVATION
External Epistemic Memory (EEM) is knowledge that lives outside the model, carries its justifications with it, and lets you understand how the system knows what it knows

### eem-epistemic [IN] OBSERVATION
Epistemic means not just facts but justified beliefs with truth values (IN/OUT), retraction cascades, contradiction records (nogoods), and derivation depth. This distinguishes EEM from RAG (which is external semantic memory but not epistemic)

### eem-external [IN] OBSERVATION
External means outside model parameters, in a separate substrate. Survives compaction, model swaps, session boundaries. Inspectable, editable, auditable, shareable across models

### eem-memory [IN] OBSERVATION
Memory in Tulving's semantic memory category — persistent structured knowledge, not ephemeral context

### eem-replaces-confidence [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM replaces 'am I sure?' with 'is this justified?' — shifting from unreliable confidence to auditable justification chains

### eem-three-properties [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM is defined by three load-bearing properties: external (outside parameters), epistemic (justified with truth values), and memory (persistent semantic knowledge)

### eem-vs-context [IN] OBSERVATION
Conversation history and context windows are ephemeral — lost at session boundaries, destroyed by compaction. EEM persists across sessions and model swaps. Context compaction destroys justification networks (quantified across 33 measured compaction events)

### eem-vs-parametric [IN] OBSERVATION
In-parameter knowledge has no audit trail. EEM makes 'how do you know that?' answerable by justification chain traversal. Of the six externality properties (separable, copyable, shareable, inspectable, editable, auditable), auditability is the most epistemically important

### eem-vs-rag [IN] OBSERVATION
RAG is external semantic memory but not epistemic. It retrieves content by similarity but has no justification chains, truth values, retraction cascades, or contradiction tracking. EEM adds the epistemic layer that RAG lacks

### eem-works [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM measurably and dramatically improves LLM performance on domain tasks. The core research question is answered: yes

### evidence-beliefs-ablation [IN] OBSERVATION
Beliefs alone outperform beliefs + expert prompt: Opus 100% vs 94.2% (+5.8pp), Sonnet 94.2% vs 91.8% (+2.4pp). Adding expert prompt hurts — agent trusts its 'expertise' instead of consulting the knowledge base

### evidence-depth-ceiling [IN] OBSERVATION
Beliefs beyond depth 8 do not survive review. Retraction rate: 0% at depth 0, rising to 100% at depth 9+. The universal TMS is wide rather than deep

### evidence-dual-path [IN] OBSERVATION
Opus + dual-path architecture achieves 98.5% A/B across 3,853 questions. Zero D/F grades — eliminated the failure tail entirely

### evidence-expert-vs-baseline [IN] OBSERVATION
Expert-service with EEM scores 88% A-grade vs agents-python 33% on same 50 questions, 15x faster

### evidence-model-compensation [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM compensates for model size: Sonnet+beliefs approximates Opus without beliefs. Haiku with dual-path achieves 94% A+B, matching Opus at 98%

### evidence-retraction-rate [IN] OBSERVATION
13-37% of derived beliefs are retracted per review round across multiple expert KBs. Self-correction works — the system finds and removes its own errors

### expert-pipeline [IN] OBSERVATION
Expert pipeline: chunk source material → propose beliefs → human accepts → derive connections → review derivations → export. Value accrues at each stage, with derive producing new knowledge (connections the source doesn't make explicit)

### expert-prompt-paradox [IN] OBSERVATION
Telling an agent it is an expert reduces belief utilization. The humble generic prompt produces better results because the agent consults the knowledge base instead of trusting its 'expertise'

### frame-problem [IN] OBSERVATION
McCarthy & Hayes (1969) frame problem: what persists across state changes. check-stale addresses this by detecting when source files change under beliefs

### ftl-reasons-is-tms [IN] OBSERVATION
ftl-reasons implements actual Doyle-style TMS architecture: SL justifications with antecedents and outlists, BFS propagation cascades with restoration, entrenchment-scored dependency-directed backtracking. LLMs fill the problem-solver role Doyle left open

### generate-and-critique [IN] OBSERVATION
LLMs are extraordinary generators but unreliable critics. The belief registry externalizes and persists the critic's judgments, replacing internal self-assessment with external structured tracking

### how-agents-use-eem [IN] OBSERVATION
LLM agents use EEM by: querying beliefs via search/show/explain before answering, citing node IDs for auditability, running derive to generate new beliefs from existing ones, running review-beliefs to self-audit, recording nogoods when contradictions appear. The agent does not need to be told it is an expert — the knowledge base speaks for itself

### how-humans-use-eem [IN] OBSERVATION
Humans use EEM by: inspecting beliefs.md for current state, running reasons explain to understand why something is believed, challenging beliefs with reasons challenge, reviewing the network with reasons status, checking staleness with reasons check-stale. The key value is visibility — humans can see and audit what the system knows

### how-to-start [IN] OBSERVATION
To start using EEM: (1) reasons init — creates reasons.db, (2) add premises from observations with reasons add, (3) add justified conclusions with --sl to link dependencies, (4) use reasons derive to find connections, (5) use reasons review-beliefs to audit, (6) retract when evidence changes and let cascades propagate

### hybrid-tms [IN] OBSERVATION
ftl-reasons is a hybrid TMS: symbolic TMS handles structure (justifications, propagation, cascades, backtracking, challenge/defend) while LLMs handle semantic operations (derive generates beliefs, review-beliefs critiques them, contradiction detection finds nogoods)

### llm-as-problem-solver [IN] OBSERVATION
Putting an LLM in the TMS problem-solver slot (generator via derive, critic via review-beliefs and contradiction detection) is what Doyle's architecture prescribes. The open question is whether an LLM is a good problem solver, not whether using one is faithful to the design

### model-stacking [IN] OBSERVATION
Multi-pass agent pattern: Model A generates candidates → TMS records with provenance → Review critiques (machine + human) → Model B receives validated beliefs → Model B derives new beliefs → Review critiques derivations → Repeat. Each level is a full model pass with fresh context and critique pipeline as quality gate

### multi-agent-beliefs [IN] OBSERVATION
Multi-agent TMS: import-agent imports another agent's beliefs with SL justifications including agent:active as antecedent. Node is IN iff agent is active AND original belief is justified. Doyle-style truth maintenance across agents

### nogood-mechanism [IN] OBSERVATION
A nogood is a set of nodes that cannot all be IN simultaneously. When detected, dependency-directed backtracking traces backward through justification chains and retracts the responsible premise with fewest dependents (minimal disruption)

### reasons-for-maintenance-beliefs-for-queries [IN] OBSERVATION
Architecture pattern: use reasons database for all structural operations (add, retract, derive, review). Export to beliefs.md for querying (fast, human-readable, grep-able). Keep both in sync via reasons export-markdown

### restoration [IN] OBSERVATION
When a retracted node comes back IN, dependents are recomputed — no manual rederivation needed. The TMS tracks structure so restoration is automatic

### retraction-cascade [IN] OBSERVATION
When a node goes OUT, all dependents whose justifications become invalid also go OUT — automatically, transitively. This is the most important operation: retract one belief and the network figures out what else falls

### scale-evidence [IN] OBSERVATION
EEM scales from small domains (237 beliefs, aap-expert) to large enterprises (12,731 beliefs, redhat-expert). 40+ expert knowledge bases built across code, product, project, and domain-specific experts

### self-critique-harmful [IN] OBSERVATION
LLM revision based on self-critique makes answers worse: Sonnet -11pp, Flash -21pp, Pro -56.5pp. Self-critique fails because the same model that made the error evaluates the error

### self-improvement [IN] OBSERVATION
The system finds problems in itself. Each improvement improves the system's ability to find the next improvement — exponential compounding vs linear improvement in static systems

### sl-justification [IN] OBSERVATION
SL (Support List) justification: a node is IN when ALL antecedents are IN. Multiple justifications allowed — node stays IN if ANY justification is valid. Enables non-monotonic reasoning via outlist (believe X unless Y)

### tms-doyle-1979 [IN] OBSERVATION
Doyle (1979) designed Truth Maintenance Systems with SL justifications, propagation, retraction cascades, and an exogenous problem-solver slot. The TMS substrate is content-agnostic by design

### wide-not-deep [IN] OBSERVATION
The universal TMS is wide rather than deep. Depth-8 ceiling is structural. Experiments reset derivation depth by providing new depth-0 observations